The Oscar Prediction Post -

My final word:



Performance by an actor in a leading role

* Sean Penn in "Milk" (Focus Features) - Will Win and Should Win. I know, I know, Mickey Rourke could win the award...I just have faith, despite the many times that the Academy has let me down, that they will reward the actual best performance of the year by a leading male. Also, Rourke is gross.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

* Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.) - Will and should win. Definitely. Yeah...I thought Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road was fantastic, and in any other year he'd be the man, but Ledger is the definite winner. Arguably the most "iconic" performance since...?

He's really that amazing in this film. "How bout a magic trick?"


Performance by an actress in a leading role

* Meryl Streep in "Doubt" (Miramax) - Should Win
* Kate Winslet in "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company) - Will Win. I'll put my thoughts here...Kate Winslet, had she been nominated for Revolutionary Road, would be a sure-fire pick for "Should Win / Will Win"...but I just didn't think she was that good in The Reader. I think it is her year, and she'll win the Oscar, but I think Streep, who was great, was just a bit better than Winslet's bad makeup job as the illiterate Nazi.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

* Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" (The Weinstein Company) - Will Win
* Viola Davis in "Doubt" (Miramax) - Should Win. You try out acting Meryl Streep in a scene...

Best animated feature film of the year

* "WALL-E" (Walt Disney), Andrew Stanton - Will, Should.

Achievement in art direction

* "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt, Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo - I mean I guess it Will...and I suppose it should...pretty weak list of nominees.

Achievement in cinematography

* "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), Anthony Dod Mantle - Should and Will.

Achievement in costume design

* "The Duchess" (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Michael O'Connor - Said it in my original review of the film...should and will win.

Achievement in directing

* "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle - Should and Will.

Best documentary feature

* "Man on Wire" (Magnolia Pictures), A Wall to Wall Production, James Marsh and Simon Chinn - Will, and Should. I mean really should. I mean...I'll be crazy upset if it loses to something...

Best documentary short subject

* "The Conscience of Nhem En" A Farallon Films Production, Steven Okazaki - Will
* "The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306" A Rock Paper Scissors Production, Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde - Should.

Achievement in film editing

* "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), Chris Dickens - Will, Should

Best foreign language film of the year

* "The Class" (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haut et Court Production, France - I'll hedge my bets...The Class should win...but...

* "Waltz with Bashir" (Sony Pictures Classics), A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production, Israel ... Will Win.

Achievement in makeup

* "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Greg Cannom - Will, Should.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

* "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), A.R. Rahman - Will, Should.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

* "Jai Ho" from "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar - Will, Should.

Best motion picture of the year

* "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), A Celador Films Production,Christian Colson, Producer - Will, Should.

Best animated short film

* "Presto" (Walt Disney) A Pixar Animation Studios Production, Doug Sweetland - Will.

* "This Way Up", A Nexus Production, Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes - Definitely Should.

Best live action short film

* "Manon on the Asphalt" (La Luna Productions), A La Luna Production, Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont - Will win...just a gut feeling having seen them all.

* "New Boy" (Network Ireland Television), A Zanzibar Films Production, Steph Green and Tamara Anghie - Definitely Should.

Achievement in sound editing

* "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.), Richard King - Will

* "WALL-E" (Walt Disney), Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood - Should

Achievement in sound mixing

* "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.), Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick - Will

* "WALL-E" (Walt Disney),Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt - Should

Achievement in visual effects

* "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron - Will. Should


Adapted screenplay

* "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy - Will, Should.

Original screenplay

* "In Bruges" (Focus Features), Written by Martin McDonagh - Should.

* "Milk" (Focus Features), Written by Dustin Lance Black - Will.